>> HELLO, WELCOME TO AMANPOUR & CO.

, HERE IS WHAT IS COMING UP.

TENSIONS ESCALATE AS THE U. S. AND IRANIAN MILITARIES TRADE SHOTS OVER THE STRAIT HORMUZ.

> >> IT IS A RIDICULOUS DECISION.

THAT IS A RETURN TO CROWE.

>> GUTTING THE VOTING RIGHTS ACT.

DISCUSSION WITH MARTIN LUTHER KING III.

PLUS.

>> THE LARGEST SUPPLY DISRUPTION IN HISTORY.

>> ENERGY EXPERT SHARES WITH WLATER ISAACSON THE GLOBAL CONSEQUENCES OF THE IRANIAN SHOCK.

.

> >> AMANPOUR & CO.

IS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE ANDERSON FAMILY ENDOWMENT, JIM ATWOOD AND LESLIE WILLIAMS.

CANDICE KING WEIR.

PROGRAMMING TO FIGHT ANTISEMITISM, THE STROWS THE STROUS FAMILY FOUNDATION.

CHARLES ROSENBLOOM.

COMMITTED TO BRIDGING CULTURAL DIFFERENCES IN OUR COMMUNITIES.

AND CONTRIBUTIONS FROM VIEWERS LIKE YOU.

THANK YOU.

> >> WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM, EVERYBODY.

I AM SITTING IN.

TENSIONS ARE RISING IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AS THEY BLEW UP SIX BOATS AFTER IRAN LAUNCHED MISSILES, DRONES AND SMALL BOATS AT U. S. NAVY SHIPS AND COMMERCIAL SHIPS PROTECTED BY THE U. S. MILITARY.

BRAD COOPER SAYS HE STRONGLY ADVISED IRANIAN FORCES TO STEER CLEAR OF U. S. MILITARY ASSETS.

MOAN WHILE NEGOTIATIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MAKING MUCH HEADWAY.

HERE IS WHAT PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID OVER THE WEEKEND.

>> AGAIN, THEY WANT TO MAKE A DEAL.

THEY ARE DECIMATED.

THEY ARE HAVING A HARD TIME FIGURING OUT WHO THEIR LEADER IS.

THEIR LEADER IS GONE.

THE LEADER, FORMER LEADER.

BUT, WE WILL SEE.

>> IRAN FOR ITS PART DISPUTES THE CLAIMS.

WE START THIS WEEK WITH THE SAME LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY AS LAST WEEK.

THE CONFLICT NOW IN THE THIRD MONTH.

THE U. S. AMBASSADOR TO NATO IN THE BARACK OBAMA ADMINISTRATION, HE JOINS US NOW.

LET'S START WITH THE BREAKING NEWS.

THE UAE SAYING THEY ARISHING A STATEMENT CALLING IT A DANGEROUS ESCALATION AND RESERVE THE RIGHT TO RETALIATE.

GIVEN THE CEASEFIRE BEING AS SHAKY AS IT ALREADY IS, DO YOU SEE THAT, AT SOME POINT, SOONER THAN LATER, THE UNITED STATES OR ISRAEL ONCE AGAIN STARTING ACTION?

>> I THINK THE POSSIBILITY INCREASED AS A RESULT OF THE LAST FEW HOURS.

SHOOTING MISSILES TOWARDS THE UAE, INTERCEPTED AND APPARENTLY NO REAL CASUALTIES, IT IS NOT SOMETHING THAT THE UNITED STATES OR ISRAEL OR THE UAE FOR THAT MATTER CAN LET GO UNANSWERED.

THIS IS THE DEFENDANT WE FIND OURSELVES.

WE ARE IN A STALEMATE, A CEASEFIRE NOT CLEAR HOW TO END IT.

THE IRANIANS BELIEVE THEY HAVE THE UPPER HAND BECAUSE THEY CONTROL ACCESS TO AND FROM THE STRAIGHT OF HORMUZ OR TRYING TO DO THAT.

THE PRESIDENT HAS NOT BEEN WILLING TO BREAK THAT WITH MILITARY FORCE.

AND SO YOU SEE THE SITUATION OF PEOPLE TRYING TO COMMUNICATE NOT BY COMMUNICATING BUT SHOOTING MISSILES AND SHOOTING AT BOATS.

THAT IS A DIFFICULT POSITION WHETHER THEY ARE GOING THROUGH THIRD PARTIES THE BEST THING TO DO IS SIT DOWN AT THE TABLE, FIGURE OUT HOW TO MOVE FORWARD ON THIS CONFLICT IN A WAY THAT SATISFIES MANY AS POSSIBLE.

>> THAT IS WITH THE REVISED 14- POINT PLAN THAT IRAN RETURNED TO THE NEGOTIATING TABLE WITH BUT NO FORMAL RESPONSE TO THE UNITED STATES OR PRESIDENT TRUMP YET.

IT APPEARS DEAD ON ARRIVAL GIVEN THE DEMANDS THAT IRAN CONTINUES TO MAKE AND NOT ATTEMPTING TO HAVE CONVERSATIONS ABOUT THE NUCLEAR ENRICHED PROGRAM.

NOW THEY WANT TO PUT THAT OFF FOR ANOTHER TIME AND IT IS COMING AFTER THE PRESIDENT OVER THE WEEKEND ANNOUNCED HE WOULD BE DEDICATED 15,000 SERVICE MEMBERS AND 100 AIRCRAFT TO CALLING WHAT HE IS CALLING PROJECT FREEDOM.

RESTORING TRANSIT THERE AMONG THE VESSELS THAT ARE STUCK IN THE STRAIT SINCE THE BLOCKADE IS ENACTED.

THEY ARE CONTINUING TO THREATEN TO STRIKE RETALIATE AGAINST AMERICAN VESSELS THERE.

AMERICAN MILITARY WAR SHIPS AS WELL.

DO YOU SEE THERE AS THE LOGICAL NEXT STEP FOR THE U. S. TO BE TAKING?

WE HAD GENERAL WESTLY CLARK ON WHO SAID IT WAS, IN FACT, HIS VIEW, THE RIGHT STEP FOR THE U. S. TO BE MAKING NOW, DO YOU AGREE?

>> WELL, IT IS A HALF MEASURE.

WHAT THE PRESIDENT PUT IN PLACE TO TELL THE SHIPS STUCK IN THE GULF TO TAKE THE TRANSIT AND THEY WILL SHOW YOU A GUIDE WHERE THERE ARE NO MINES AND THEY MAY PROVIDE SOME AIR COVER AND SOME NAVAL COVER.

BUT IT IS NOT AN ESCORTING MISSION, NOT A MISSION THAT SAYS YOU SHOOT AT ANY ONE OF US WE SHOOT AT YOU IN THE WAY THAT WE DID BACK IN THE 1980s.

AT SOME POINT IT IS IMPORTANT TO OPEN UP THE GULF.

YOU CAN DO IT THROUGH NEGOTIATION OR YOU CAN DO IT THROUGH MILITARY FORCE.

THE NEGOTIATION DOES NOT SEEM TO BE WORKING.

SO, ESCALATING IN ORDER TO TRY TO HELP SHIPS THAT ARE STUCK TO GET OUT AND MORE IMPORTANTLY TO RESTORE THE FLOW OF INTERNATIONAL WATERWAY MAY BE, MAY BE THE BEST WAY TO SOLVE THIS QUESTION.

BUT, YOU HAVE TO ANSWER THE QUESTION BEFORE YOU GO INTO THIS, HOW FAR DO YOU WANT TO TAKE THIS?

LET'S SAY THAT YOU TRY TO ESCORT THE SHIPS THROUGH.

THEY GET ATTACKS, INDEED, APPARENTLY A UAE TANKER WAS JUST ATTACKED OVERNIGHT OR OUR SHIPS GET ATTACKED AND THEN YOU RESPOND AND HOW FAR DO YOU WANT TO TAKE THIS?

WE ARE IN THIS PICKLE, FRANKLY, THE MILITARY OPTION IS NO MORE ATTRACTIVE THAN THE DIPLOMATIC OPTION.

AND THAT IS WHY THE PRESIDENT, EVERY TIME HE IS CONFRONTED WITH THE REALITY THAT THE IRANIANS ARE SAYING NO.

NOT BECAUSE THEY ARE DIVIDED OR THEY DON'T HAVE LEADERSHIP AS THE PRESIDENT KEEPS ON SAYING BUT BECAUSE THEY THINK THEY HAVE THE UPPER HAND.

THE ONLY WAY TO DEAL WITH THAT IS NEGOTIATIONS SAYING WE WILL GIVE YOU WANT YOU WANT OR ESCALATING MILITARILY.

WE DON'T WANT THAT.

THE PRESIDENT DOES NOT WANT TO ESCALATE MILITARILY.

AS WE SAW WITH THE SIX WEEKS OF WAR THAT DOES NOT GET YOU WHAT YOU WANT.

THE NUCLEAR ISSUE, OPENING UP THE STRAIT OR IF IT IS A CHANGE OF REGIME.

THAT IS THE FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIC DILEMMA THAT THE UNITED STATES FINDS ITSELF IN HAVING STARTED A WAR WITHOUT THINKING THROUGH THE CONSEQUENCES OF WHAT WOULD HAPPEN.

>> THE PRESIDENT ANNOUNCED "OPERATION FREEDOM" FOR A GOODWILL GESTURE FOR A NUMBER OF COUNTRIES ASKING HIM TO DO JUST THIS.

ALTHOUGH PRESIDENT MACRON MADE IT CLEAR TODAY THAT FRANCE WILL NOT PARTICIPATE.

THEY DO NOT WANT TO BE DRAGGED INTO A WIDER WAR.

IF OUR CLOSE ALLIES, IF OUR NATO PARTNERS VIEW IT AS A STRATEGIC TRAP IS THERE SOMETHING THAT U. S. INTELLIGENCE IS SEEING THAT PERHAPS, THEY ARE NOT?

>> MAYBE.

IF THEY DO, PERHAPS IT WOULD BE A GOOD IDEA TO CONSULT WITH ALLIES RATHER THAN SHOUTING AT THEM THROUGH TRUTH SOCIAL POSTS AND WHAT HAVE YOU.

AND SHARE THAT INTELLIGENCE.

IF THERE IS SOMETHING AND A STRATEGY THAT THE UNITED STATES THINKS IT HAS TO OPEN UP THE STRAITS THAT IT DID DO SO WITH MINIMAL RISK OF ESCALATION THEN DO SHARE THAT WITH THE EUROPEANS.

THEY HAVE THE CAPABILITY, THE FORCES, NAVAL CAPABILITIES THAT THE UNITED STATES DOES NOT HAVE INCLUDING MINE-CLEARING VESSELS THAT THE U. S. , OF COURSE, WITH DREW BACK LAST NOVEMBER THAT ARE NECESSARY TO OPEN UP THE GULF.

BUT, THAT REQUIRES THE KIND OF COOPERATION THAT WE USED TO HAVE WITH OUR ALLIES BUT NO LONGER SEEM TO HAVE.

THE PRESIDENT IS MORE INTERESTED IN BLAMING EUROPE FOR THE PROBLEM THAT WE ARE HAVING AND THREATENING EITHER TARIFFS AS HE DID ON FRIDAY OR WITHDRAWING TROOPS AS HE ALSO DID ON FRIDAY RATHER THAN FINDING A WAY TO BRING THE EUROPEANS ALONG.

AS LONG AS THAT IS THE CASE I DON'T SEE ANY COUNTRY IN EUROPE, THE FRENCH OR THE BRITISH OR ANYONE ELSE GETTING INVOLVED IN A SITUATION, FRANKLY THE U. S. MILITARY HAS NOT FIGURED OUT HOW TO RESOLVE ITSELF.

>> AND YET IT IS THOSE EUROPEAN COUNTRIES, ONE COULD ARGUE, ARE SUFFERING MORE THAN THE UNITED STATES IS GIVEN THE RISE IN ENERGY PRICES STEMMING FROM THE WAR.

A WAR THEY WERE CONSULTED ABOUT, TRUE.

A WAR THAT THEY WERE SURPRISED WHEN IT FIRST LAUNCHED FEBRUARY 28th.

AND OBVIOUSLY WE HAVE SEEN THE RHETORIC BETWEEN PRESIDENT TRUMP AND SOME OF THESE LEADERS DIRECTED AT THE LEADERS AND AT NATO.

ALL OF THAT ASIDE DO THAT I NOT STAND TO BENEFIT AT THIS POINT TO HELP, AT LEAST WITH REGARDS TO OPENING UP THE STRAIT AND HOPEFULLY LOWERING ENERGY COSTS AND TAKING AWAY THE LEVERAGE THAT IRAN SEEMS TO BELIEVE IT HAS?

>> THEY WOULD STAND TO BENEFIT IF THERE WAS AN EASY WAY TO OPEN UP THE STRAITS BUT THERE IS NOT AN EASY WAY.

IRANIANS STILL HAVE THE CAPACITY TO ATTACK COMMERCIAL AND MILITARY VESSELS IN LARGE NUMBERS.

THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE PRIME MINISTER OF ISRAEL DECIDED TO GO TO WAR IN THE MISTAKEN BELIEF THEY HAD ALL OF THE CARDS THAT OUR MILITARY CAPABILITY WOULD DEVASTATE IRAN TO THE POINT THAT THEY COULD NOT RESPOND.

IRAN RESPONDED AND CLOSED THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

IT STILL HAS A LARGE CAPACITY OF NAVEL, MOSQUITO BOATS AND OTHER NAVAL VESSELS AND MISSILES AND DRONES THAT IT CAN USE TO INFLICT DAMAGE ON ANYONE WHO IS TRYING TO GET THROUGH THE STRAIT WITHOUT THEIR DIRECT AGREEMENT.

AND AS LONG AS THAT IS THE CASE THE MILITARY OPTION FOR OPENING UP THE STRAIT IS DANGEROUS AND RISKS FURTHER ESCALATION.

AND THE EUROPEANS NOT HAVING BEEN CONSULTED, NOT HAVING BEEN ASKED TO BE PART OF THIS FROM THE VERY BEGINNING ARE SAYING WE ARE NOT GOING TO RISK INVOLVING OURSELVES IN THIS SITUATION UNTIL AND UNLESS WE KNOW IT IS SAFE TO DO SO.

THAT IS THE DILEMMA THAT WE FACE.

THE REALITY IS THE PRESIDENT KEEPS SAYING THE IRANIANS DO NOT HAVE CARDS, THEY DO HAVE CARDS, THEY CAN CLOSE THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AT A COST THEY ARE WILLING TO BEAR AND FRANKLY NO ONE ELSE IS WILLING TO BEAR.

THAT IS THE PROBLEM WE ARE FACING.

>> PRESIDENT TRUMP, ALSO IN THE MEANTIME, HITTING EUROPE WITH A 25% TARIFF ON CARS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SIMULTANEOUSLY DEMANDING THAT THEY DO MORE TO OPEN UP THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

CAN THE U. S. EFFECTIVELY LAUNCH A TRADE WAR OR RELAUNCH A TRADE WAR WITH ITS ALLIES AT THE SAME TIME TRYING TO GET THEM TO WORK TOGETHER TO OPEN UP THE STRAIT AND RESOLVE THE CONFLICT?

>> IT IS A VERY TRUMP-NOTION THAT THE WAY YOU DEAL WITH ALLIES IS TRY TO BEAT THEM OVER THE HEAD AS HARD AS THEY CAN SO THEY WILL COME RUNNING TOWARDS YOU.

THE LAST 1 1/2 YEARS HAS TAUGHT MOST OF OUR ALLIES, UNFORTUNATELY, THE BETTER WAY TO DEAL THE WITH THE UNITED STATES UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES IS TO SAY NO AND TO STAND UP TO THE UNITED STATES.

THAT IS WHAT CHINA HAS DEMONSTRATED AND AS A RESULT THE U. S. RELATIONSHIP WITH CHINA IS, IT IS NOT AS BAD AS IT IS BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND ITS ALLIES.

SO, I THINK THE ALLIES HAVE LEARNED IT IS PROBABLY BEST MOST OF THE TIME TO JUST IGNORE WHAT THE PRESIDENT IS SAYING AND TO FOCUS ON WHAT THEY NEED TO DO THEMSELVES WHICH IS TO REDUCE THE PENNANCE ON THE UNITED STATES AND IF PAIN IS INFLICTED ON THEM ECONOMICALLY TO RETALIATE.

AND, THE REALITY IS THAT THE EUROPEAN UNION IS STILL THE LARGEST TRADING PARTNER OF THE UNITED STATES.

IT IS THE LARGEST INVESTOR IN THE UNITED STATES, AND TO THE EXTENT THAT THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES IS THE CHAIRMAN TO DAMAGE IT THE EUROPEANS ARE GOING TO SUFFER BUT THE EUROPEANS HAVE MEANS TO MAKE AMERICANS SUFFER AS WELL.

WOULDN'T IT BE BETTER IF WE RETURNED TO THE KIND OF POLICIES WE HAD BEFORE, WORK TOGETHER WITH OUR ALLIES TO SQUEEZE THOSE WHO WE OPPOSE INCLUDING THE IRANIANS IN TERMS OF ECONOMIC AND DIPLOMATIC LEADERS INCLUDING THE CHINESE ON THE QUESTIONS OF TECHNOLOGY AND OTHER COMPETITION THAT WE ARE ENGAGED IN RATHER THAN TRYING TO BEAT THEM INTO SUBMISSION SO THEY CAN DO OUR BIDDING.

THEY ARE NOT GOING TO DO IT.

THEY DECIDED AFTER ALL OF THIS TIME THAT ENOUGH IS ENOUGH.

THEY ARE MOVING AHEAD.

MEETING TODAY AS WE SPEAK IN ARMENIA TO FIGURE OUT WAYS TO REDUCE THEIR DEPENDENCE ON THE UNITED STATES AND TO DO MORE ALONE.

THAT IS NOT GOOD FOR THE UNITED STATES OR EUROPE AND THAT IS WHERE WE ARE UNFORTUNATELY.

>> IT IS CLEAR THE UNITED STATES AND THIS ADMINISTRATION DOES NOT VIEW NATO AS A WHOLE AND NUMBER OF THE COUNTRIES AS MODEL ALLIES.

THE U. S. WITHDRAWALLING AND PULLING 5,000 TROOPS FROM GERMANY.

MOST WOULD AGREE THAT CAME IN RESPONSE TO THE PRESIDENT AND HIS FRUSTRATION WITH GERMAN CHANCELLOR ACCUSING THE U. S. OF BEING HUMILIATED AND THAT WAS HIS RETRIBUTION AND THE U. S. IS WALKING BACK A 2024 AGREEMENT TO DEPLOY TOMAHAWK MISSILES AND WHAT MANY WOULD VIEW AS A DETOURANCE DETOURANCE GAP WITH RUSSIA.

HOW IS MOSCOW VIEWING THIS ALL?

>> I THINK MOSCOW IS LOOK AT THIS AND CAN NOT BELIEVE ITS LUCK.

PUTIN AND THE RUSSIAN ARMY WERE ON THE ROPES, LOSING 35 TO 40,000 TROOPS ON THE FRONTLINES IN UKRAINE.

96% OF THE RUSSIAN CASUALTY WERE BEING INFLICTED NOT BY DIRECT GUNFIRE BUT DRONES AND OTHER VEHICLES.

THE ECONOMY WAS IN A DEEP TAIL SPIN.

AND ALL OF A SUDDEN, TWO THINGS HAPPENED THAT CHANGED THAT SITUATION.

NUMBER ONE, OIL PRICES RISED AND OF COURSE REVENUES FOR RUSSIAN OIL SALES MEANS THAT THE RUSSIAN COFFERS ARE INCREASED AT $100 MILLION A DAY.

THAT IS SIGNIFICANT AND THE UNITED STATES ARE LOGGER HEADS PRECISELY IN THE WAY THAT RUSSIANS AND THE SOVIET UNION HAS LONG WANTED.

THE ONE THING THAT THE RUSSIANS WANTED IS THE UNITED STATES TO LEAVE EUROPE AND THE UNITED STATES IS NOW DOING EXACTLY THAT BY SAYING THAT IT IS TAKING OUT ITS TROOPS, NOT DEPLOYING ITS MOST ADVANCED WEAPONRY, TELLING THE EUROPEANS INCLUDING THE SO-CALLED MODEL ALLIES, WHATEVER THAT MEANS, THEY ARE NOT GOING TO BE GETTING THE WEAPON THEY HAVE PURCHASED BECAUSE THE IRAN WAR REDUCED STOCKPILES AND THE U. S. HAS TO GET THE WEAPON BEFORE EVERYBODY ELSE DOES.

SO, THE RELATIONSHIP IS IN DEEP TROUBLE ON THE SECURITY SIDE.

WE TALKED ABOUT THE ECONOMIC SIDE.

AND THAT LEAVES PUTIN LOOKING OUT SAYING WAIT A MINUTE, WHAT I SEE IS A LESSER U. S. COMMITMENT, A WITHDRAW FROM THE UNITED STATES FROM EUROPE THAT GIVES ME MORE OPTIONS AND MORE OPPORTUNITIES LET ME WAIT IT OUT IN UKRAINE AND FIND ANOTHER WAY TO THREATEN SECURITY IN EUROPE AND ANOTHER WAY BECAUSE I DON'T HAVE TO WORRY SO MUCH AS I USED TO ABOUT WHAT THE U. S. WOULD DO.

>> AND YET, GIVEN ALL OF THAT, I WOULD LIKE TO GET YOU TO COMMENT TO REPORTING FROM CNN AND OTHERS THAT PUTIN, WHILE MAY BE BENEFITING FROM BOTH THE FRACTURING WITHIN NATO AND THE STRAIT CLOSING AND THUS THE SPIKE IN OIL PRICES.

INTELLIGENCE IS SHOWING THAT HE IS MORE ISOLATED THAN EVER IN BUNKERS DUE TO PARANOIA OVER DRONE STRIKES FROM UKRAINE.

HIS DOMESTIC APPROVAL RATINGS ARE TAKING, THE INDEPENDENT AGENCIES THAT CAN STILL POLL ARE SHOWING THAT THE NUMBERS OF RUSSIANS SUPPORTING HIM AND THIS WAR CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

SO, HOW DO YOU THINK THAT IS GOING TO IMPACT HIS THINKING AS FAR AS HOW HE CONDUCTS THIS WAR AGAINST UKRAINE AND GIVEN THAT INTERNAL PARANOIA.

DO YOU THINK HE IS FOCUSED AS MUCH ABOUT WHAT IS HAPPENING OUTSIDE OF HIS BORDERS IN EUROPE WITH THE UNITED STATES?

>> YEAH.

I THINK HE IS FOCUSED ON THE UKRAINE WAR AND I THINK HIS PARANOIA WILL LIKELY MAKE HIM DOUBLE DOWN RATHER THAN TO GIVE IN.

HE HAS BET A LOT ON SUCCESS IN THIS UKRAINIAN WAR.

HE LOST OVER 1.

3 MILLION PEOPLE.

DEAD OR SEVERELY WOUNDED.

HE HAS CHANGED THE ENTIRE ECONOMY FROM A CONSUMER ECONOMY TO A WAR ECONOMY.

HE ASKED A LOT FROM THE PEOPLE OF RUSSIA IN ORDER TO SUPPORT THIS WAR.

SO, HE IS GOING TO DOUBLE DOWN.

I FEAR ESCALATION AT THIS POINT MORE THAN DE-ESCALATION.

>> ESCALATION FROM WHO?

>> FROM THE RUSSIANS.

THEY HAVE OTHER MEANS, AS WE KNOW, INCLUDING NUCLEAR WEAPON.

WE HAD A THREAT OF NUCLEAR WEAPON A YEAR, A FEW YEARS AGO BACK IN OCTOBER OF 2022.

AND I THINK THE MORE THE PRESSURE IS SO HIM AND THE MORE ISOLATED HE FEELS THE MORE HE MAY WELL DOUBLE DOWN.

I WORRY THAT HE MAY NOT FIND -- IS LOOKING FOR A FACE-SAVING WAY OUT.

THIS IS THE TIME THAT THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES, RATHER THAN CONDUCTING A WAR THAT SEEMS TO REALLY NOT BE WORKING OR MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION, CAN TELL VLADIMIR PUTIN NOW IT IS TIME RATHER THAN ESCALATION IT IS TIME TO FIND A RESOLUTION, LET'S GET TO THE TABLE AND FIND A WAY TO END THE WAR THAT AT LEAST ACHIEVES SOMETHING FOR YOU WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ENSURING UKRAINE'S SECURITY.

THIS IS A TIME FOR REAL DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT.

I DON'T SEE IT HAPPENING BY THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES.

I DON'T THINK THE PEOPLE HE SENT ARE CAPABLE OF DOING SO.

BUT WE ARE IN A FRAUD MOMENT WHERE IT SEEMS TO ME THAT THE RUSSIANS ARE INCREASINGLY SEEING THE UKRAINIANS TAKING THE ADVANTAGE AND THE INITIATIVE AND THEY ARE FACED WITH THE CHOICE DO I GIVE IN AND GIVE UP WHAT I SUFFERED FOR SO GREATLY OR DO I FIND A WAY OUT TO ESCALATE.

KNOWING PUTIN, THE LATTER IS MORE LIKELY THAN THE FORMER.

>> WE WILL HAVE TO END IT THERE.

THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR THE TIME.

REALLY APPRECIATE IT.

>> MY PRESSURE.

> >> AMERICAN DEMOCRACY ACTIVISTS ARE GRAPPLING WITH A HISTORIC DECISION BY THE U. S. SUPREME COURT THAT LAST WEEK SLASHED YET ANOTHER KEY PART OF THE 1965 VOTING RIGHTS ACT.

IT WAS MORE THAN 60 YEARS AGO WHEN PRESIDENT JOHNSON SIGNED THE BILL DESIGNED TO PROHIBIT RACIAL DISCRIMINATION IN VOTING.

SENATOR WARNOCK SAYS IT TARNISHES THE LEGACY OF MARTIN LUTHER KING, JR WHO WAS INSTRUMENTAL IN PUSHING IT.

>> THE ANSWER TO THIS.

IT IS MORE DEMOCRACY.

MORE PEOPLE STANDING UP RIGHT NOW.

NOT ONLY COMMITTING TO VOTING BUT REGISTERING VOTERS, REACHING OUT TO THEIR STATE LEGISLATURE.

WE HEARD FROM THE SUPREME COURT I AM WAITING TO HEAR FROM MY COLLEAGUES IN THE CONGRESS, QUITE FRANKLY.

MANY OF THEM WILL LINE UP COME JANUARY.

HEAPING PRAISES ON MARTIN LUTHER KING, JR.

WE WILL LET THE WORD GO FORTH THAT YOU CAN NOT REMEMBER HIM AND SITTING SILENTLY AS HIS LEGACY IS BEING DISMEMBERS.

NOW IS THE TIME TO SPEAK.

>> WITH ME NOW IS THE CIVIL RIGHTS LEADER'S SON, MARTIN LUTHER KING, III, A CIVIL RIGHTS ACTIVIST IN HIS OWN RIGHT.

WELCOME BACK TO THE PROGRAM FROM ATLANTA.

GLAD TO HAVE YOU WITH US ON THIS IMPORTANT MATTER.

WE KNOW THE DESCENT ARGUED THAT THE MAJORITY VICEERATED THE VOTING RIGHTS ACT.

YOU GONE A STEP FORWARD CALLING IT A MORAL INDICTMENT.

WHY DO YOU THINK IT IS A RETREAT FROM VOTING JUSTICE?

>> I HAPPENING HISTORICALLY WE WENT TO THE COURT AND THE COURT EXPANDED RIGHTS.

WHEN YOU LIMIT RIGHTS AND YOU ALSO ACT AS IF THERE IS NO DISCRIMINATION AND, IN FACT, THE RESULT OF WHAT YOU HAVE DONE WILL POTENTIALLY CLOSE THE DOOR FOR A NUMBER OF CONGRESS PERSONS, PARTICULARLY THE BLACK CAUCUS, PERHAPS ALSO IT IMPACTS NOT BLACKS, NOT JUST THE BLACK COMMUNITY BUT THE BROWN COMMUNITY.

AND ALL OF THE COMMUNITY.

I THINK WE ALWAYS NEED TO BE CREATING OPPORTUNITIES FOR MORE PEOPLE TO VOTE.

NOT SUPPRESSING THE VOTE.

WHAT IS MORALLY RIGHT, THE COURTS DID THAT, ACTUALLY, I SHOULD SAY CONGRESS DID IT IN 1965 WITH THE PASSAGE.

BUT THE COURTS ALLOWED IT FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS BUT THE JOB WAS NOT COMPLETE .

THERE MAY BE A DAY IT WILL BE COMPLETE BUT IT IS JUST NOT AT THIS POINT.

>> THIS CASE INVOLVED LOUISIANA SPECIFICALLY AND SO FOR OUR VIEWERS THERE IN LOUISIANA WHO ARE CASTING BALLOTS IN THE PRIMARY.

NOW IT HAS BEEN SUSPENDED WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR THEIR REPRESENT STATION IN 2026?

WELL IT COULD MEAN THEY HAVE NO REPRESENTATION.

THEY ARE NOT REPRESENTED.

IN THE MIDDLE OF AN ELECTION PROCESS, ONE THING TO SAY WE ARE GOING TO PHASE IT IN AND FOR SOME YEARS DOWN OR NEXT ELECTION CYCLE.

BECAUSE SO MANY VOTERS WILL BE UNINFORMED.

WILL NOT KNOW WHAT IS GOING ON.

AND THAT THEY ARE BEING DISINFRANCHISED.

THEY WILL FEEL IT AND KNOW IT.

DISENFRANCHISED.

THEY WILL FEEL IT AND KNOW IT BUT IN THIS CLIMATE IT WILL FEEL LIKE IT IS ALL RIGHT.

THE SOLUTION IS TO STAY ENGAGED.

STAY ON THE BATTLEFIELD TO GET REGISTERED EARLY AND MAKE SURE THAT YOUR VOTE COUNTS.

THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS, IF YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN HOW DO YOU DO THAT?

SO, THE SYSTEM HAS GOT TO BE CORRECTED.

BUT, PEOPLE HAVE TO STAY INVOLVED.

I MEAN, THIS GOVERNMENT IS SUPPOSED TO BE FOR THE PEOPLE NOT FOR SOME PEOPLE.

NOT --IT IS LIKE AS OPPOSED TO PEOPLE ELECTING OFFICIALS.

OFFICIALS ARE DECIDING WHO THEY WANT TO RETAIN THEM IN POWER.

THAT IS JUST WRONG.

>> YOUR FATHER, IN 1957, MADE A SPEECH CALLED "GIVE US THE BALLOT. "

IN IT HE SAID THIS, SO LONG AS I DO NOT FIRMLY AND POSSESS THE RIGHT TO VOTE I DO NOT POSSESS MYSELF.

I CAN NOT LIVE AS A DEMOCRATIC CITIZEN OBSERVING THE LAWS I HELPED TO ENACT.

HOW MUCH OF HIS LIFE'S WORK IN SALMA WAS JUST UNDONE BY THIS COURT'S DECISION?

>> WELL, AGAIN, I THINK A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF THE WORK IS DISCOUNTED OR ATTEMPTED TO BE ABOLISHED.

YOU KNOW, HISTORY IS VERY IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND.

AND THERE ARE SOME IN OFFICE TODAY WHO ARE TRYING TO ELIMINATE AND ABOLISH THE HISTORY OF ALL PEOPLE.

BECAUSE WHETHER YOU KNOW THE HISTORY YOU DON'T REPEAT THE MISTAKES OF THE PAST.

IF YOU DON'T KNOW YOU OPERATE LIKE A BLIND PERSON.

AND SO, THIS IS A PART OF ATTEMPTING TO DISMINNISH --I ACTUALLY BELIEVE PEOPLE ARE GOING TO RISE UP.

MY HOPE IS IN YOUNG PEOPLE.

MY DAUGHTER IS 18 YEARS OLD AND JUST TURNING 18.

SHE HAD A WHOLE GROUP OF HER PEERS.

IN FACT SHE WAS BORN RIGHT BEFORE PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA WAS ELECTED.

SO, FOR EIGHT YEARS THEY SAW GOVERNMENT WORK.

ALL OF THOSE YOUNG PEOPLE NOW WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY WHO WERE BORN IN THAT SAME YEAR IN 2008 WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO VOTE FOR THE FIRST TIME AND ENGAGE.

AND, WE ARE GOING TO SEE, I THINK, SOMETHING DIFFERENT BUT WE HAVE TO KEEP FIGHTING.

I MEAN, AS WE SAY, WE CAN NOT GIVE UP, GIVE OUT, GIVE IN.

WE HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE FORWARD.

THERE IS A BILL IN CONGRESS RIGHT NOW THAT CONGRESS REFUSES TO PASS THAT JOHN LEWIS AUTHORED BEFORE HE DIED AND THAT WOULD OF GIVEN EVERYONE THAT RIGHT IN A WAY WHERE EVERYONE COULD BE --COULD PARTICIPATE.

SO, TODAY WHEN YOU ARE JERRY MANDERRING AND MANY STAKES ARE TALKING ABOUT IT, JUST CHANGING THIS WHOLE PROCESS BECAUSE OF A TERRIBLE SUPREME COURT DECISION, IN MY JUDGMENT.

THAT IS GOING TO HAUNT US AT SOME POINT IF WE DON'T FIND A WAY TO COURSE CORRECT.

JUST LIKE SO MANY OTHER THINGS THAT WE MAY BE DOING IN THIS NATION.

WE MUST MAKE A COURSE CORRECTION.

AND THE FIRST THING IS TO STAY ENGAGED.

>> GIVEN THE OPPORTUNITIES THAT YOU JUST LAID OUT THAT YOUR DAUGHTER AND HER GENERATION HAVE, I THINK THAT-THAT IS WHAT JUSTICE ALITO IS CLAIMING HE IS JUST UPDATING THE FRAMEWORK FOR A COUNTRY THAT CHANGED DRAMATICALLY SINCE 1965.

HE IS SAYING THE DISCRIMINATION IS NO LONGER AN ISSUE TODAY AND PROTECTIONS OF SECTION 2 OF THE VOTING RIGHTS ACT ARE NO LONGER NEEDED.

EXPLAIN TO OUR VIEWERS WHY HE IS WRONG AND WHAT HE MAY NOT BE SEEING THAT MANY MINORITY VOTERS ARE.

>> WELL, I THINK THAT, AGAIN, ALL YOU GOT TO DO IS A THAT OVER HALF OR ALMOST HALF POTENTIALLY OF THE CONGRESSIONAL BLACK CAUCUS WOULD BE GONE.

THEY HAVE BEEN REPRESENTING FOLKS FOR --AND EVERY YEAR PROGRESS MADE IN TERMS OF MORE CONGRESS PERSONS.

NOT JUST BLACK CONGRESS BUT LATINO AND HISPANIC, PERSONS OF EVERY WALK OF LIFE BEING ELECTED.

WHAT HE SEEMS TO BE SAYING IS RACISM DOES NOT EXIST ANYMORE.

I WISH THAT WAS THE CASE.

I HONESTLY DO.

MY DAD TALKED ABOUT THE DAY WHETHER THIS COULD HAPPEN.

BUT WE JUST HAVE NOT ACHIEVED THAT YET.

AND I THINK THAT VOTERS NEED TO UNDERSTAND.

EVERYTHING SHOULD NOT HAVE TO BE ABOUT COLOR BUT WE DO HAVE TO CREATE THE CONCEPT OF A COLOR BLIND SOCIETY.

THAT IS JUST NOT REAL YET.

300 MILLION PLUS AFRICAN AMERICAN WOMAN HAVE BEEN ABOLISHED FROM JOBS IN THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT.

THERE HAVE BEEN OTHER ITS ABOLISHED ALSO.

BUT I AM SAYING THE SIGNIFICANT FACT, THE MOST QUALIFIED OF THOSE IN THE AFRICAN AMERICAN COMMUNITY, BLACK WOMEN, 300,000 GONE.

NO JUSTIFICATION AS TO WHY?

WE DON'T SEE THE GOVERNMENT OPERATING ANYMORE EFFICIENTLY.

WE ARE SPENDING MORE AND MORE MONEY ON DEATH AND DESTRUCTION.

IT IS PROPOSED THAT WE SPEND $25 BILLION ON THE IRAN WAR.

AND MY ONLY POINT WOULD BE THIS, IF WE ARE GOING TO SPEND THAT MUCH MONEY ON DEATH AND DESTRUCTION WE OUGHT TO AT LEAST DEMAND WE SPEND EQUAL OR SAME OR MORE AMOUNT ON LIFE AND THE CONCEPT OF CREATING AND SAVING LIVES.

NOT JUST ON DEATH AND DESTRUCTION.

>> AND BY REQUIRING PROOF OF INTENT RATHER THAN EFFECT, THAT IS ONE OF THE REASONS WHY YESTERDAY KAGAN SAYS IT IS A DEAD LETTER IN HER WORDS.

IN PRACTICE, HOW QUICKLY WILL WE SEE MINORITY VOTING POWER DILUTED.

ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH?

>> WELL, IF ALL OF THE GERRYMANDERING HAPPENS, IT HAPPENS, A LOT OF THE AFRICAN AMERICAN POPULATION IS MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH.

SO, YOU ARE MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH YOU AND ARE DISENFRANCHISED ON DAY ONE.

YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT AN IMMEDIATE IMPACT.

NOT NEXT YEAR, NOT TWO YEARS FROM NOW BUT IMMEDIATELY.

AND, SO, AGAIN, THAT IS WHY ENGAGEMENT IS SO IMPORTANT.

IT IS VERY CONFUSING.

I DON'T EVEN UNDERSTAND HOW YOU ARE GOING TO EXPLAIN TO PEOPLE WITH ALL OF THIS IN THIS SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WHILE ELECTIONS ARE GOING ON RIGHT NOW.

IT IS ALMOST LIKE YOU CAN'T IF A CAR IS BROKEN YOU CAN NOT FIX IT WHILE YOU ARE DRIVING.

SO, THE ELECTION IS GOING ON AND YOU ARE CHANGING THE SYSTEM.

TO ME THAT GENERALLY WOULD BE ILLEGAL.

AND YET, IT SEEMS THAT SOME ARE MAKING IT LEGAL.

>> POLITICO SAYS REDISTRICTING JUST WENT NUCLEAR AFTER THIS DECISION.

WE KNOW THAT THIS WAS INITIALLY THE REPUBLICANS UNDER PRESIDENT TRUTH WHO IS PUSHING FOR IT IN TEXAS AND NOW OBVIOUSLY WE SAW IT TAKEN UP IN CALIFORNIA, VIRGINIA, NOW FLORIDA.

NOW, ALSO ENGAGING IN THIS AS WELL.

AS STATES LIKE LOUISIANA AND FLORIDA ARE REDRAWING THE MAP AS WE SPEAK DO YOU THINK THAT THIS JUST TAKES AWAY ANY?

WHEN YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT REENGAGING YOUNGER GENERATIONS TO GET THEM INVOLVED.

DO YOU THINK IT TAKES AWAY A PATH FOR FAIRNESS AND BIPARTISANSHIP, NONPARTISANSHIP IN TERMS OF WHO THEY ARE VOTING FOR AND HOW THEY VOTE?

>> WELL, I DEFINITELY THINK IT CERTAINLY DOES THAT.

IT REALLY, THIS AS A WHOLE IN TERMS OF WHAT DEMOCRACY IS SUPPOSED TO BE ABOUT.

THAT IS WHY DAD IN 1957, IN MAY, DELIVERED "GIVE US THE BALLOT" SPEECH.

WE CAN DO SO MUCH IF WE ARE ABLE TO BE ENGAGED IN THE SYSTEM.

WHEN YOU DRAMATICALLY CHANGE THE SYSTEM AND MAKE IT EVEN HARDER FOR PEOPLE TO VOTE.

TO FIND THEIR POLLING PLACES.

I MEAN, NEW PLACES WILL HAVE TO BE ESTABLISHED.

IT IS A NUMBER OF THINGS.

AND THIS JUST SHOULD NOT BE.

AMERICA IS BETTER THAN WHAT IT HAS DONE, WHAT IT DID WHEN IT DECIMATED THE VOTING RIGHTS ACT.

IT STARTED IN 2013, OF COURSE, CHIPPING AWAY AT IT FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS AND FINALLY IT ALMOST IS WATERED DOWN TO NOTHING.

THAT HAS GOT TO CHANGE AND WE GOT TO FIND A WAY TO EXPAND THE OPPORTUNITY FOR PEOPLE TO PARTICIPATE.

>> AND NOW THERE IS JUST CONCERN THAT THIS IS A RACE REALLY TO THE BOTTOM.

EVEN DEMOCRATS WHO WERE RELUCTANT TO DO THIS ARE SAYING WE HAVE NO OTHER CHOICE.

IF REPUBLICANS STARTED THIS WE HAVE TO FOLLOW SUIT, FIGHT FIRE WITH FIRE.

AND THAT ULTIMATELY LEAVES THE VOTERS WHO ARE ON THE LOSING END.

I WANT TO CLOSE BY ASKING ABOUT HOW DEMOCRATIC HOUSE LEADER JEFFRIES SAID.

>> TODAY'S DECISION BY THISIL LEGITIMATE SUPREME COURT MAJORITY DESCRIBES A BLOW AND IT IS DESIGNED TO UNDERMINED THE ABILITY OF COLOR ACROSS THE COUNTRY TO ELECT THEIR CANDIDATE OF CHOICE.

WE ARE NOT HERE TO STEP BACK WE ARE HERE TO FIGHT BACK.

>> YES.

HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT THE LANGUAGE, CALLING IT MAJORITYIL LEGITIMATE?

>> WELL, I WOULD NOT SAY --I WILL SAY PROBABLY A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO FEEL THAT WAY.

IF WE WENT BACK IN HISTORY AND DURING PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA TENURE THERE WAS AN ENTIRE YEAR LEFT AND LEADERSHIP OF MITCH McCONNELL WOULD NOT ALLOW.

THAT TIME, GARLAND WHO BECAME ATTORNEY GENERAL, WOULD ALLOW HIM TO BE SEATED.

NOT ALLOW A HEARING.

IS THAT DEMOCRACY?

YOU HAVE TO CHANGE THE RULES TO ACCOMPLISH SOMETHING?

FROM THAT PERSPECTIVE THERE IS NOT LEGITIMACY.

THE COURT REPRESENTS WHO THEY REPRESENT AND THEY ARE ALLOWED TO DO THAT.

I WOULD ONLY ENCOURAGE THE COURT TO ENGAGE.

THE COURTS ARE SUPPOSED TO BE A PROVISION FOR CHECKS AND BALANCES WE NEED TO ASK IF THE COURTS ARE DOING THEIR JOBS.

MANY WOULD SAY NO.

I WOULD ALMOST HAVE TO AGREE WITH THAT.

THE COURT HAS TO DO A BETTER JOB.

SOME ARE TALKING ABOUT EXPANDING THE COURT.

LEADER JEFFRIES TALKED ABOUT THAT.

>> WOULD YOU SUPPORT THAT?

>> THAT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN NOW.

I THINK THAT IS SOMETHING THAT WE STRONGLY NEED TO CONSIDER.

PARTICULARLY IF A COURT WILL NOT FULLY ENGAGE IN DOING WHAT THE COURT SHOULD ALWAYS DO.

>> ALL RIGHT, MARTIN LUTHER KING, III, THANK YOU FOR THAT TIME.

I CAN NOT HELP BUT LOOK AT THAT BEAUTIFUL PORTRAIT OF YOUR MOTHER THERE OVER YOUR SHOULDER.

I HAVE BEEN LISTENING TO YOU AND LOOKING AT HER AND JUST THINKING ABOUT HOW MUCH SHE AND YOUR FATHER AND YOU CONTINUE TO DO ON THIS VERY IMPORTANT ISSUE AND SPEAKING, SPEAKING TRUTH TO POWER.

REALLY APPRECIATE THE TIME.

THANK YOU.

>> THANK YOU FOR THE OPPORTUNITY.

THANK YOU.

> >> NOW, AS WE MENTIONED THE U. S. MILITARY IS ATTEMPTING TO GUIDE SHIPS OUT OF THE STRAIGHT OF HORMUZ.

THE BLOCKADE OF THIS WATERWAY IS WREAKING HAVOC.

IT IS CAUSING THE LARGEST DISRUPTION AS EVER SEEN IN HISTORY.

ENERGY EXPERT DETAILS HOW GOVERNMENTS ARE REASSESSING THEIR RELIANCE AND HOW THE BIGGEST CRISIS HAVE NOT HIT AMERICA YET.

HE JOINS WLATER ISAACSON IN THIS DISCUSSION.

>> THANK YOU.

AND JASON, WELCOME TO THE SHOW.

>> THANK YOU, GOOD TO BE WITH YOU.

>> YOU KNOW, TWO DECADES AGO THE UNITED STATES IMPORTED, I THINK, 60% OF ITS OIL AND NATURAL GAS.

NOW, NOW THE BIGGEST PRODUCER AND EXPORTER, HAS THAT HELPED CUSHION THE BLOW OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ CLOSURE?

>> IT HAS.

MORE THAN I ANTICIPATED AT THE START OF THIS.

OIL IS STILL A GLOBAL COMMODITY.

GLOBAL PRICES WILL GO UP AND CONSUMERS, THE PRICE AT THE PUMP IS SET BY THE GLOBAL PRICE AND CONSUMERS WILL FEEL THE PAIN.

BELOW $3 TO WELL OVER $4 AT THIS POINT.

THERE ARE A FEW FACTORS THAT INSULATED THE U. S. MORE THAN WOULD HAVE BEEN THE CASE WHEN I SERVED IN THE WHITE HOUSE 12, 13 YEARS AGO AND WE WERE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO TAKE IRANIAN OIL OFF OF THE MARKET TO HAVE PRESSURE ON IRAN BECAUSE OF THE NUCLEAR PROGRAM AND WE WERE CONCERNED ABOUT WHAT IT WOULD DO TO THE U. S. ECONOMY.

FIRST, THE IMPACT ON THE MACRO- ECONOMY IT IS SMALLER WHEN INCREASE CONSUMER SPENDING GOES TO DOMESTIC SHAREHOLDERS RATHER THAN ABROAD.

A DYNAMIC WITH THE TIME LAG BEFORE THE U. S. FEELS THE SAME PAIN THE REST OF THE WORLD DOES.

THE PHYSICAL SHORTAGES OF TAKING OFF 15 MILLION BARRELS A DAY WITH THE STRAIT CLOSED.

YOU SAW IT IN SOUTHEAST ASIA, PEOPLE SHORTENING WORKWEEKS, AIRLINES HAVING TROUBLE REFUELING.

EVENTUALLY THE PAIN WITH THE TIME LAG TO MOVE SHIPS AROUND THE WORLD MAKES ITS WAY TO THE U. S. BUT IT HAS TAKEN TWO OR THREE MONTHS.

A BIT OF A HEAD START WHERE WE WERE FEELING PAIN BUT NOT AS BAD.

>> LET ME DRILL DOWN, SO TO SPEAK ON THAT TIME LAG.

.

WHEN WILL IT HIT US?

>> IT IS COMING.

OIL PRICES SOARED TO THE HIGHEST PRICES AROUND $110, $115.

GASOLINE PRICES WILL KEEP GOING UP.

IT IS A GLOBAL MARKET.

AT SOME POINT THERE ARE DOZENS OF TANKERS FROM ASIA HEADED TO THE UNITED STATES READY TO LOAD UP U. S. CRUDE IF WE CAN.

AND THE PRICE IN THE U. S. WILL HAVE TO RISE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THOSE BARRELS HERE AND MEET DOMESTIC DEMAND.

GLOBAL MARKET.

WE HAVE SEEN AN INTERESTING DISCONNECT WHERE THE PHYSICAL PRICE OF OIL STARTED TO BE PRETTY DISCONNECTED FROM THE SO CALL TRADED PRICE THAT YOU TEND TO SEE ON THE SCREEN.

USUALLY THEY ARE THE SAME.

BUT, WE DID NOT SEE THAT DISCONNECT IN THE U. S. SAW IT IN EUROPE AND ASIA.

IF YOU KEEP THE STRAIT OF H ORMUZ CLOSED WE ARE HEADED TO HIGHER OIL PRICES.

EVENTUALLY IF YOU HAVE 15 MILLION BARRELS A DAY OF SUPPLY OFF OF THE MARKET.

PRICES HAVE TO RISE HIGH ENOUGH TO DESTROY 15 MILLION BARRELS A DAY OF SUPPLY OF DEMAND.

>> WAIT, WAIT, WAIT, WHY HAS THE MARKET NOT PRICED IT IN.

YOU ARE TALKING $110 FOR DOMESTIC OIL HERE.

>> THERE ARE A FEW ANSWERS TO THAT.

FUTURE PRICE THAT PEOPLE SEE AS THE HEADLINE OIL PRICE THAT IS A ONE MONTH FUTURES CONTRACT.

IT IS WHAT PEOPLE THINK THE PRICE WILL BE NOT AT THERE MOMENT TO BUY A BARREL OF CRUDE BUT A MONTH FROM NOW.

AND I THINK WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE MARKET DOING AND PART OF IT IS TRUMP'S OWN RHETORIC IS BETTING IT WILL BE OVER SOON.

YOU HAVE SEEN THE ADMINISTRATION SET TIME LINES, OVER IN TWO OR THREE WEEKS OR SIX WEEKS OR PASSED ALL OF THE DEADLINES TO BE CLEAR AND NO END IN SIGHT.

BUT I THINK GENERALLY PEOPLE HAVE BEEN BETTING IT WILL BE OVER SOONER RATHER THAN LATER.

CUSHIONS.

WE RELEASED A LOT OF OIL FROM THE RESERVE, INVENTORIES GLOBALLY WERE HIGH, WE ARE DRAWING THE INVENTORY DOWN.

ONLY SO LONG.

WE WERE USING SANCTIONS ON IRAN AND RUSSIAN OIL THAT WAS FLOATING IN TANKERS ON THE WATER.

YOU CAN ARGUE IF IS A GOOD IDEA OR BAD IDEA.

BUFFERS IN THE SYSTEM BUT THEY ARE OUT.

>> EVEN IF YOU LOOK AT THE FUTURES FOR SEPTEMBER, WHY IS OIL PRICE SO LOW?

>> BEFORE THIS CONFLICT STARTED WE HAD LOW, RELATIVELY OIL PRICES, $60 OR $70 A BARREL.

AND ESTIMATES WERE THAT THE OIL PRODUCTION IN 2026 WOULD EXCEED GLOBAL DEMAND FOR OIL BY TWO, THREE FOUR MILLION BARRELS A DAY.

THERE WAS A BROAD THOUGHT WE WOULD USE MORE THAN CONSUME.

THAT WAS STARTED IF THE STRAIT WERE TO OPEN TOMORROW AND WITHIN A FEW WEEKS OR A MONTH OR TWO YOU GET THE SUPPLY BACK ONLINE.

WE ARE BACK TO THAT SCENARIO WHERE WE WERE BEFORE.

PEOPLE ARE BETTING IF IT ENDS SOON AND THERE IS NOT YET SIGNIFICANT PHYSICAL DAMAGE TO THE OIL THAT WILL TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.

PEOPLE THINK IT COULD COME BACK ONLINE RELATIVELY QUICKLY AND THEN BACK TO THE OVER SUPPLIED SITUATION.

>> YOU ARE SAYING IF IT ENDS IN TWO OR THREE WEEKS THINGS GO BACK TO NORMAL AND IT HAPPENS RELATIVELY SOON.

HOW LONG DOES THE CLOSURE OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ LAST UNTIL WE GET TO SOMETHING WORSE?

>> IT IS LARD TO SAY EXACTLY.

--HARD TO SAY EXACTLY.

PEOPLE REACT IN STEP CHANGES.

BUT I THINK IN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO MONTHS AT MOST.

IF YOU CONTINUE TO SEE 14 OR 15 MILLION OFF OF THE MARKET PRICES ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO MARCH UPWARD.

THERE IS NO POLICY TOOL IN THE TOOL KIT TO DEAL WITH POLICY SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS LARGE ENOUGH TO COPE WITH SUPPLY LOSS THERE FAR.

BY FAR THE LARGEST DISRUPTION WE HAVE SEEN IN HISTORY EVEN BACK TO THE OIL EMBARGO.

>> THE LARGEST DISRUPTION WE EVER SEEN IN HISTORY AND YET IN SOME WAYS IT HAS NOT EFFECTED THE ECONOMY OF THE UNITED STATES.

ARE WE MORE INSULATED THAN SAY ASIA?

>> I THINK WE ARE.

WE ARE NOT IMMUNE TO BE SURE.

BUT, I THINK WE ARE MORE INSULATED THAN PARTS OF THE WORLD THAT ARE VERY HEAVY OIL IMPORTERS WHERE THOSE PHYSICAL SHORTAGES SHOW UP MORE.

DYNAMIC WITH NATURAL GAS WHERE THE PRICE OF NATURAL GAS IS TOTALLY DISCONNECTED.

BELOW $3 HERE AND AGAIN TO $15 OR $20 IN EUROPE AND ASIA.

THERE ARE OTHER BUFFERS THERE, TOO, THAT IS IMPORTANT.

SAY IN CHINA.

THEY HAVE A STRATEGIC OIL RESERVE OF A BILLION BARRELS AND THE U. S. HAS BEEN SELLING OUR RESERVE OFF.

BOTH SIDES OF THE AISLE, MIND YOU, FOOLISHLY, OUT OF THE SENSE THAT IT GIVES US NEW FOUND SECURITY.

AND CHINA HAS BEEN, FOR ENERGY SECURITY REASONS NOT JUST ENVIRONMENTAL OR CLIMATE REASONS TRYING TO REDUCE OIL IMPORTS FOR DECADES BY ELECTRIFYING MORE OF THE ECONOMY.

HALF OF THE NEW CARS SOLD IN CHINA ARE ELECTRIC BECAUSE THEY DON'T WANT TO BE DEPEND ANT ON OIL.

IF YOU ARE IN SOME AREAS, PAKISTAN, THAILAND, VIETNAM, THE PAIN IS PARTICULARLY ACUTE RIGHT NOW IN THOSE PLACES.

MUCH MORE SO THAN WE ARE FEELING HERE.

>> WHY IS JET FUEL SO EXPENSIVE ESPECIALLY IN EUROPE NOW?

>> IT IS THE NATURE OF THE REFINING SYSTEM AND WHERE THEY IMPORT FROM AND THE WAY THEIR REFINERIES ARE OPTIMIZED.

YOU GET DIFFERENT PRODUCTS FROM IT.

GASOLINE, DIESEL, JET FUEL, OTHER THINGS AND CERTAIN CRUDES LIKE EVERYONE IS TALKING ABOUT IT, CRUDE PRODUCE MORE OF SOME THAN OTHERS.

SO, AS THE TYPE OF OIL THAT TENDS TO COME OUT OF THE STRAIT OVER HORMUZ IS, THOSE ARE MANIFESTING THEMSELVES MORE WITH SOME PRODUCTS THAN OTHER.

JET FUEL THAN WITH GASOLINE AND MORE IN CERTAIN REGIONS.

WE SHOULD REMEMBER THE GULF WAS NOT ONLY THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, 20 MILLION WENT THROUGH.

THAT WAS 15 MILLION OF CRUDE AND PATROLIUM.

REFINERIES IN THE GULF THAT COULD NOT GET THEIR JET FUEL, DIESEL OUT AND PEOPLE WERE SEEING SHORTAGES.

>> WHY IS IT THAT THE STOCK MARKET HAD THE BEST MONTH IN A LONG TIME?

APRIL WAS THE BEST MONTH IN MEMORY.

IT HIT RECORD HIGHS, SHOULDN'T IT BE AFFECTING THE U. S. ECONOMY?

>> IT HAS AND OTHER GUESTS YOU HAVE HAD ON IT IS A SHORT-LIVED CRISIS.

IT WILL BE OVER SOON.

ON RELATIVE BASIS.

WE ARE PRETTY --BETTER OFF THAN SOME OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD.

SO, I THINK IT IS A TIMING QUESTION.

THEN YOU HAVE OTHER PARTS THAT ARE IMMUNE FROM GLOBAL SHOCKS LIKE THIS.

THE AI BOOM IS DRIVING THE ECONOMY.

CHINA ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECAST HAS BEEN REVISED DOWNWARD.

NOT CATASTROPHIC BUT DOWNWARD BECAUSE THEY DEPEND ON A LOT ON EXPORTS AND CONCERN ABOUT FOR MANUFACTURING WHAT THE GLOBAL IMPACT OF THERE IS GOING TO LOOK LIKE ON DEMAND.

>> YOU TALK ABOUT THE A. I. BOOM DRIVING THE U. S. ECONOMY.

TO WHAT EXTENT WILL IT PUT MORE DEMAND ON ENERGY NEEDS?

>> IT IS ALREADY.

YOU KNOW, WE LONG TALKED ABOUT ENERGY PRICES IN A POLITICAL ISSUE IN ELECTIONS THAT TENDS TO BE GASOLINE PRICES.

BUT, WHAT IS NEW IS WE ARE TALKING ABOUT ELECTRICITY PRICES NOW.

BIG IN ELECTIONS.

A LOT OF COMMUNITIES ARE CONCERNED ABOUT WHAT DATA CENTER DEVELOPMENT DOES TO ELECTRICITY PRICES AS WELL AS OTHER ISSUES.

ON A GLOBAL BASIS WE ARE CLEAR THERE ARE OTHER DRIVERS OF ELECTRIC DEMAND MORE, EVEN AIR- CONDITIONING BUT THE IN U. S. ELECTRIC DEMAND IS RISING SHARPLY FOR THE FIRST TIME AFTER TWO DECADES, DATA CENTERS ARE A MAJOR SOURCE OF THAT.

THE ISSUE IS MORE ACUTE IN CERTAIN PLACES LIKE VIRGINIA AND OTHER PLACES, NOT AN ISSUE IN SOME PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.

WE WILL NEED MORE POWER GENERATION CAPABILITY AND WE ARE GOING TO NEED TO USE OUR EXISTING GRID MUCH BETTER AND MORE EFFICIENTLY.

>> SHOULD THE U. S. TRY TO STOP OR HALT THE EXPERT OF LIQUIFIED NATURAL GAS?

>> I BETTER THAN FOR A LONG TIME I THINK THAT WILL BE A MISTAKE.

THE U. S. HAS A LOT OF NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION IN EXCESS OF OUR CURRENT DEMAND WHEN YOU PRODUCE OIL YOU GET A LOT OF NATURAL GAS IN THE PROCESS AND WE BECOME THE LARGEST SUPPLIER OF LNG TO THE WORLD MARKET.

WHICH HAS HELPED OUR ALLIES.

THIS WAS AN ISSUE THAT I TALKED ABOUT WHETHER I SERVED IN THE OBAMA WHITE HOUSE.

THAT WAS THE FIRST TIME SOMEONE ASKED FOR PERMISSION, THERE WERE QUESTIONS ABOUT WHAT THE EFFECT IS ON THE U. S. ECONOMY.

DOES IT PUSH UP ENERGY CRISIS?

WE HAVE A LOT OF CHEAP GAS IN THIS COUNTRY.

ENVIRONMENTAL QUESTIONS THAT ARE CRITICALLY IMPORTANT TO ANSWER AND DEALING WITH THE ENVIRONMENTAL FOOTPRINT AND METHANE LEAKS WITH GAS BUT A INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ARGUMENT, TOO.

WHAT I REMEMBER THE CONVERSATIONS HAPPENED IN THE WHITE HOUSE HOW TO THINK ABOUT THE SECURITY IT WOULD PROVIDE TO ALLIES LIKE THOSE IN JAPAN OR EUROPE IN A SITUATION WHERE THERE WAS A DISRUPTION TO GAS SUPPLIES LIKE RUSSIA CUTTING OFF THE SUPPLY TO EUROPE.

THAT WAS SOMETHING THAT WE TALKED ABOUT.

I THINK WE SAW A REAL-LIFE CASE PLAY OUT A FEW YEARS AGO WHERE EUROPE WAS IN A BETTER POSITION THAN IT OTHERWISE WOULD HAVE BEEN BECAUSE WE HAVE AN INTERCONNECTED INTEGRATED GAS MARKET NOW.

A SUPPLY DISRUPTION SOMEWHERE MARKETS DO WHAT MARKETS DO AND IN RESPONSE COUNTRIES GET SUPPLIES THEY WOULD NOT OTHERWISE BE ABLE TO GET.

>> FOR A LONG TIME WE TALKED ABOUT ENERGY INDEPENDENCE IN THE UNITED STATES.

SORT OF A PHRASE.

YOU WRITTEN A PIECE IN "FOREIGN AFFAIRS" AND YOU, I HAPPENING SAY THAT IS NOT A GOAL WE SHOULD BE CHASING OR EVEN A CONCEPT THAT IS VERY USEFUL.

EXPLAIN WHY.

>> YEAH, IT IS A GOAL OBVIOUSLY PRESIDENTS FOR DECADES HAVE TALKED ABOUT ENERGY INDEPENDENCE.

AND, DEPENDS HOW YOU DEFINED INDEPENDENCE THE IDEA THAT THE U. S. WENT FROM A HUGE IMPORTER TO EXPORTER HELPED THE U. S. ECONOMY HELP FROM THE GEO POLITICAL STANDPOINT.

WHAT WE WROTE IN "FOREIGN AFFAIRS" THE LESSON FROM THE 1970s ENERGY CRISIS THAT MANY TOOK WAS MORE INTEGRATION, INTERCONNECTION AND GLOBAL COOPERATION INCREASES NOT DECREASES ENERGY SECURITY AFTER THE OIL EMBARGO, WE CREATED AN AGENCY SO CONSUMING COUNTRIES COULD HAVE HELP DURING CRISIS, STOCKPILES THAT WE COLLECTIVELY MANAGED AND SHARED.

OIL MARKET, INTEGRATED IT.

IF THERE IS A SUPPLY DISRUPTION, A TSUNAMI HITTING JAPAN OR HITTING THE GULF COAST, YOU CAN ACCESS IT IN OTHER PLACES THAT DID NOT EXIST IN 1970s WHEN OIL WAS SOLD IN LONG-TERM CONTRACTS BETWEEN BUYER AND SELLER.

I THINK IN THE WORLD OF GEO POLITICAL COMPETITION FRAGMENTATION THE DETERIORATING WORLD ORDER THAT WAS SPOKEN ABOUT, COUNTRIES VIEW INTERCONNECTION AS A SOURCE OF RISK NOT AS A SOURCE OF STRENGTH AND WE SORT OF WARN ABOUT THE DOWNSIDES OF THAT VIEW.

IT IS CERTAINLY THE CASE THAT COUNTRIES WANT TO PRODUCE MORE AT HOME, GOOD ARGUMENTS FOR THAT.

IF YOU TRY TO DISCONNECT.

TAKE AN APPROACH THAT LOOKS LIKE "AR-TALKIE" WHICH WE TERMED.

>> WE ARE LUCKY.

THE STRAIT CLOSES YET WE HAVE HUGE AMOUNTS OF NATURAL GAS.

WE HAVE OUR OWN OIL, WE ARE NOT DEPENDING ON THE SHIPS COMING THROUGH THE STRAIT.

>> WE ARE NOT BUT EXPOSED TO THE GLOBAL MARKET.

AS I DESCRIBED A MOMENT AGO WITH NATURAL GAS IT IS DIFFERENT BUT FOR OIL THE BENEFIT WE HAVE IN ADDITION TO MORE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY WHEN THE PRICES GO UP, THERE ARE WINNERS, THERE ARE LOSERS, NOT JUST LOSERS.

A TIMING QUESTION.

WE HAD A HEAD START AS WE TALKED ABOUT, TWO OR THREE MONTHS BEFORE WE FEEL THE PAIN THE REST OF THE WORLD DOES BUT IN A GLOBAL MARKET WE ARE GOING TO FEEL IT EVENTUALLY.

WHY THE U. S. IS BETTER OFF TODAY, NOT JUST BECAUSE WE ARE PRODUCING MORE BECAUSE WE ARE USING LESS AS A SHARE OF OUR ECONOMY.

THE ECONOMY INCREASED FOREFOLD AND OIL HAS BARELY GONE UP.

WE FEEL IT LESS, LESS OF AN IMPACT.

TRYING TO HAVE MORE ELECTRIFICATION AS CHINA DID OF OUR --USE LESS OIL THROUGH ENERGY EFFICIENCY.

THAT MAKES US MORE RESILIENT.

AND THE THING TO SAY MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE IS THERE IS A COST TO SELF-SUFFICIENT.

WORRIED ABOUT SOLARPANELS FROM CHINA AND MIGHT BE GOOD REASONS TO WORRY ABOUT SOME OF THOSE THINGS AND MAKE EVERYTHING AT HOME.

MINE YOUR CRITICAL MINERALS, PROCESS YOUR LITHIUM.

YOU CAN DO IT, IT IS PROBABLY MORE EXPENSIVE AND THAT WILL BE TRUE FOR LOTS OF OTHER PARTS OF THE ENERGY SYSTEM.

THE QUESTION IS WHAT INSURANCE PREMIUM SOCIETY IS WILLING TO PAY IN A WORLD THAT IS INCREASINGLY SEEING GEO POLITICAL RISKS AND CONCERNS.

BUT IF YOU REALLY TRY TO WALL YOURSELF OFF AND MAKE EVERYTHING AT HOME THAT IS PROBABLY UNDERMINING YOUR RELATIONSHIPS AND DIPLOMATIC ALLIANCES AND IT CAN BE EXPENSIVE.

>> YOU SAY THAT IT HAS NOT FULLY AFFECTED THE WORLD ECONOMY YET.

BUT, OIL SHOCKS GENERALLY LEAD TO GLOBAL RECESSIONS, AT SOME POINT, CORRECT ME IF I AM WRONG.

TELL ME DO YOU THINK THAT WE MAY BE SET UP FOR A GLOBAL RECESSION?

EVEN THOUGH THE STOCK MARKET KEEPS GOING UP?

>> PROBABLY ECONOMISTS THAT WOULD HAVE A FIRMLY HELD VIEW ON THAT.

I WILL SAY FROM AN ENERGY STANDPOINT YOU ARE RIGHT.

A LONG HISTORY THAT HAS BEEN DOCUMENTED HOW MOST OIL SHOCKS FED INTO RECESSIONS.

BUT, THERE ARE A NUMBER OF BUFFERS IN PLACE NOW THAT ARE STRONGER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN BEFORE INCLUDING THE FACT IS, AS I SAID, GLOBAL ECONOMY IS FAR LESS OIL INTENSIVE NOW THAN IT WAS IN THE PAST.

YOU HAVE A MASSIVE NEW SOURCE OF SUPPLY, GROWING NINE MILLION BARRELS A DAY OVER THE LAST DECADE OR SO.

THAT IS AN INCREASE IN SUPPLY CUSHIONS THE WORLD.

WE WERE A BIT OVER SUPPLIED AS I SAID BEFORE.

I THINK YOU WILL SEE A VERY, WE ARE ALREADY SEEING QUITE AN ADVERSE ECONOMIC IMPACT IN CERTAIN REGIONS.

ONE OF THE THING THAT IS DIFFERENT TODAY IN THE PAST AS I SAID BEFORE, OIL PRICES HAVE TO GO HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE PEOPLE USE LESS TO DESTROY DEMAND.

THAT PAIN TODAY, THAT DEMAND DISRUPTION IS SEEN AND FIRST AND FOREMOST IN LOW INCOME COUNTRIES.

THE EMERGING MARKETS.

I THINK THAT IS WHERE YOU WILL SEE THE WORST ECONOMIC EFFECTS.

>> JASON, THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR JOINING US.

APPRECIATE IT.

>> THANK YOU.

> >> FINALLY, SOME SWEET DREAMS.

IN A COUNTRY THAT WORKS SOME OF THE LONGEST HOURS IN THE DEVELOPED WORLD, HUNDREDS OF SOUTH KOREANS TURNED UP AT A PARK THIS WEEKEND TO DO SOMETHING MANY OF THEM BARELY GET TO DO.

SLEEP.

IT WAS THE CITY'S THIRD ANNUAL POWER NAP CONTEST.

THE ENTRY REQUIREMENTS WERE SIMPLE.

COME TIRED AND WITH A FULL BELLY.

OFFICIALS WALKED BETWEEN THE CONTESTANTS CHECKING HEART RATES TO MAKE SURE THE SLEEP WAS REAL BECAUSE IN THIS GAME SNOOZING IS NOT LOSING.

ONE COMPETITOR CAME WITH A UNIQUE DRESS FOR SUCCESS STRATEGY.

>> I USUALLY DON'T SLEEP WELL.

I STRUGGLE TO FALL ASLEEP AND WAKE UP EASY.

I CAME DRESSED AS ONE TO BORROW THEIR MAGIC.

THE WINNER BEATING OUT OFFICE WORKERS AND SLEEP DEPRIVED STUDENTS WAS A MAN IN HIS 80s, HE DID NOT JUST WIN A TROPHY.

HE PUT THE COMPETITION TO BED.

AN AWARD SHOULD GO OUT TO OUR CREATIVE WRITERS.

I LOVE THAT STORY.

THAT IS IT FOR OUR PROGRAM.

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